US-only this week….. 4Q 2011 Earnings season is roughly 58% done — as of Thursday’s most recent data from S&P. •57% of earnings results beat, 32% missed, 11% met lowered earnings expectations. Again, this is below the 65% average beat rate for sandbagged results. Why do I refer to earnings estimates as sandbagged ? Because there’s a pattern of earnings estimates being lowered as […] Read the rest of this entry
Big Picture: Warning: The mini greedometer (tactical risk indicator) is displaying readings previously only seen when the S&P500 was within 5% of a secular (long term) top. The greedometer (strategic risk indicator) is approaching dangerous risk levels as well. There is very little upside and a great deal of downside to risk assets (stocks, junk bonds, commodities, REITs) at this time. A much more […] Read the rest of this entry
Strategic Indicator: Greedometer Last week, the greedometer registered 5400 rpm, a respectable but not unexpected jump from the previous week 4800rpm. And with that, we have the end of the year-end rise in the greedometer. The 2011 set of greedometer readings resemble that of 2007. Indeed, both years saw the last or second to last week finish with a 5400rpm reading. Uncanny. And foreboding. (the […] Read the rest of this entry
China: There’s more evidence of residential property prices dropping. The People’s Bank of China is going to have to step-in in Q1 if this continues. After the European financial system crisis, China’s property bubble is the number two strategic investment issue to track. How is China’s stock market? Down over 60% since the peak in 2008, and down nearly 30% from this year’s peak. India: The news […] Read the rest of this entry
The big news: The ECB indicated banks bellied-up to the feed-trough that is its new unlimited three year line of credit. More than 500 European banks sopped-up nearly 500B euro of loans. Roughly 300B of this will be used to refinance existing debt. This move by the ECB is a desperate one. The first quarter of 2012 will see a tidal wave of sovereign & bank debt […] Read the rest of this entry
The greedometer registered 4600 rpm. 2011 continues to resemble a compressed version of 2007-2008. The mini greedometer is topping-out for this cycle. There’s a new leg down about to begin.
NAPFA